Market rally is tired given lackluster holiday sales.

Nov 27, 2023

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Market rally is tired given lackluster holiday sales. U.S. retail sales on Black Friday reported by Mastercard were up 2.5% year-over-year excluding automotive, essentially negative adjusted for inflation. Seasonality could continue to favor market for short term, but NVDA failing breakout and Russell 2000 struggling below key resistance are concerning. US 10y yield will retest 4.5% and if it fails recession trade is much closer.

SPX breakout.

Nasdaq100 breakout

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